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Welcome to Tracking Forests!

Through this site we will be reporting the latest results of our ongoing research into the future range shifts of main forests species in Turkey and neighbouring regions using high resolution climate data from different reanalysis and climate models, a process based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, ground observations to determine the stressors, expert analysis and plenty of literature review. This site currently also acts as a space to present supplementary information for our presentation for the EGU2021 planary scheduled for April 2021.

Latest from the Research

Vegetation zones

During a RCP8.5 scenario simulation with LPJ-GUESS forced with EC_Earth3P-HR, the model forecasts a significant northeasterly retreat of boreal species towards the end of the century. The migration seems to be dominated by Pinus sylvestris primarily towards the Caucauses, and in the case of a small population in the southeast of Turkey a possible altitudinal…

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Temperate species

Future simulations for Turkey’s woody taxons with LPJ-GUESS using the climatic drivers from EC-Earth3P-HR suggest not only a northeasterly shift for the boreal species, but also an overall increase in both leaf area index and density of temperate species throughout Turkey. Click the animations below to view the entire simulations for some of the taxons…

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Dominant species 1982 – 2099

LPJ-GUESS forced with ERA5 Land for the period 1982-2020, and with EC-Earth3P-HR for the period 2020-2099 (bias corrected and interpolated). Our initial results from the model simulation suggest a higher heterogenity in species ranges for Turkey by the end of the century. Below is a comparison of the model result for dominant species presence (taxon…

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Temperature

Temperature anomaly in climate projections for Turkey as simulated by EC-Earth Consortium’s 3P-HR: proposed change (an increase) in temperatures from the reference period of 1989-2019 is shown below. Drought indices for the country will soon be added to this page. All material, written/presented here or linked to this site (including videos, graphics, tables, plots, all…

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Precipitation

Turkey’s geographical location mandates its regional climate and precipitation patterns. Changes in elevation, distance from the sea, and diverse geomorphology translate themselves into different precipitation patterns in the north and south of the coutry. Inner continental climate, vs southern Mediterranean climate gives into a boreal pattern and alpine species in the high altitudes of the…

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Species Distribution

The results from our current parametization of plant traits for species defined in LPJ-GUESS are largely in tandem with current on site observations of their distribution as recorded by the Turkish Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs. The model, in its current phase, correctly simulates the range of terrestrial vegetation in the absence of any…

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Along a transect…

Central Turkey is situated on a high plateau, which also mandates its climatology, evident as regional changes in temperature and precipitation patterns due to elevation and/or distance from the sea. The country is also home to enclaves of micro-climates/micro_habitats as diverse as its topography. Here we present the elevation vs the change in total precipitation…

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Species look up table

Look up table for the tree taxons defined to LPJ-GUESS (shrubs and grasstypes not included) decidious (d), evergreen(eg) Tree taxa Tree type Bioclimatic property Abies alba eg temperate Betula pubescens d boreal Betula pendula d temperate Carpinus betulus d temperate Corylus avellana d temperate Fagus sylvatica d temperate Fraxinus excelsior d temperate Juniperus oxycedrus eg…

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All material, written/presented here or linked to this site (including videos, graphics, tables, plots, all visual and intellectual property presented here or linked to from external sites such as videos) is under copyright protection and all unauthorized sharing/using of any data presented on this site is strictly prohibited. For permission to share, please contact the authors directly, or through this email address: ekberzade19@itu.edu.tr

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